{"version":"1.9","identifier":"b0d80700-4d9f-476c-9762-49a865c05d04","language":"en-US","title":"Fuel ate the third quarter: US airline profit estimates versus what they reported","layout":{"columns":7,"width":1024,"margin":32,"gutter":20},"componentLayouts":{"text":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"maximumContentWidth":720,"margin":{"top":12,"bottom":12}},"photo":{"columnStart":0,"columnSpan":7,"margin":{"top":20,"bottom":20}}},"componentTextStyles":{"default":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"textColor":"#171717"},"headline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue-Bold","fontSize":36,"lineHeight":42,"conditional":[{"conditions":{"maxViewportWidth":480},"fontSize":28,"lineHeight":34}]},"intro":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":20,"lineHeight":28,"textColor":"#555555"},"caption":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":19,"textColor":"#666666"},"byline":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":13,"lineHeight":20,"textColor":"#666666"},"body":{"fontName":"HelveticaNeue","fontSize":18,"lineHeight":29,"paragraphSpacingAfter":14,"linkStyle":{"textColor":"#00704a"}}},"metadata":{"canonicalURL":"https://www.loungefrog.com/news/us-airline-q3-2026-earnings-estimates-fuel-scorecard","datePublished":"2026-10-21T18:46:44.028602Z","dateModified":"2026-10-21T18:47:24.029073Z","authors":["Patrick Karsh"],"excerpt":"Analysts expected only four US airlines to profit in Q3 as jet fuel rose more than 40%. Delta, United and Alaska have reported; five more follow by Nov. 4.","thumbnailURL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/b0d80700-4d9f-476c-9762-49a865c05d04/8f6974f4f4c04985c57641c6b89da579.jpg","keywords":["airline"],"generatorName":"Frog News","generatorVersion":"1.0"},"components":[{"role":"title","text":"Fuel ate the third quarter: US airline profit estimates versus what they reported","textStyle":"headline","layout":"text"},{"role":"intro","text":"Analysts expected only four US airlines to profit in Q3 as jet fuel rose more than 40%. Delta, United and Alaska have reported; five more follow by Nov. 4.","textStyle":"intro","layout":"text"},{"role":"byline","text":"By Patrick Karsh · Published October 21, 2026","textStyle":"byline","layout":"text"},{"role":"photo","URL":"https://pub-fac99da959e344fe99d810d309cef7df.r2.dev/photos/article/b0d80700-4d9f-476c-9762-49a865c05d04/8f6974f4f4c04985c57641c6b89da579.jpg","caption":"Delta Air Lines photo published with its September quarter 2026 financial results · Delta Air Lines","accessibilityCaption":"Delta Air Lines photo published with its September quarter 2026 financial results","layout":"photo"},{"role":"caption","text":"Delta Air Lines photo published with its September quarter 2026 financial results · Delta Air Lines","textStyle":"caption","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Analysts went into earnings season expecting only four US airlines to make money in the third quarter: [Delta](https://www.loungefrog.com/airlines/dl), [United](https://www.loungefrog.com/airlines/ua), [Southwest](https://www.loungefrog.com/airlines/wn) and [Alaska](https://www.loungefrog.com/airlines/as). Fuel is the reason. Three airlines have now reported, and none of them came in cleanly ahead of the estimates.\n\n## The estimates\n\nThe numbers below are analyst estimates of third-quarter net income, in millions of US dollars, from a proprietary research report. Similar consensus figures are available from [Seeking Alpha](https://seekingalpha.com), [MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com), [Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com) and brokerage research. Figures in parentheses are losses.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"htmltable","html":"
AirlineQ3 estimate ($M)Reports
Delta1,325Oct. 9 (reported)
United935Oct. 20 (reported)
Southwest289Oct. 22
Alaska42Oct. 20 (reported)
Frontier(7)Oct. 28
Allegiant(15)Nov. 4
JetBlue(189)Oct. 27
American(225)Oct. 22
","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Delta and United were expected to earn $2.26 billion between them. The other six were expected to lose a combined $105 million.\n\n## Fuel: a cheap start, an expensive finish\n\nThe quarter started with fuel prices relatively low, after a drop from the second-quarter highs. By the end of September, prices were more than 40% higher.\n\nThe [US Energy Information Administration](https://eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68245) charted the swing. Brent crude futures opened the quarter at $72 a barrel on July 1. They passed $100 on July 23, peaked at $109 on September 15 and averaged about $104 in the last two weeks of September.\n\nRefining made jet fuel costlier still. The EIA says crack spreads for distillate and jet fuel were almost triple their year-earlier levels. The research behind the estimates puts the jet crack spread around $50 a barrel, and says refiners are steering capacity to other distillates.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"htmltable","html":"
AirlineFuel cost per gallon
Frontier$4.17 in Q2; guided $3.70 for Q3
Delta$3.61 in Q3; about $4.25 guided for Q4
United$3.90 in Q3, up 60.3% in a year
Alaska$4.65 to $4.85 guided for Q4
","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Delta and Alaska both expect to pay more per gallon in the fourth quarter than in the third.\n\n## Results so far","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"},{"role":"htmltable","html":"
AirlineEstimate ($M)GAAP net ($M)Adjusted net ($M)
Delta1,325756about 1,130
United9351,029833
Alaska42(147)49
","layout":"text"},{"role":"body","format":"markdown","text":"Each airline name links to its earnings release. Delta does not publish adjusted net income. We worked it out from its adjusted EPS of $1.72 and the share count implied by its GAAP results, so treat it as approximate. Alaska's adjusted figure excludes certain tax items; without that step, it lost $35 million. The research does not say whether its estimates are GAAP or adjusted.\n\n### Delta\n\nDelta's revenue rose 21.1% to a record $20.2 billion. Fuel expense rose 69.3% to $4.35 billion, and Delta says fuel cost more than $500 million above its July plan. Adjusted pre-tax income was $1.5 billion, the same as a year earlier.\n\nDelta cut its full-year EPS outlook to $5.10 to $5.60, from $6.50 to $7.50 in July. Premium ticket revenue rose 17.6% to $6.82 billion and now edges out main cabin. We covered the lounge angle in [our Delta results story](https://www.loungefrog.com/news/delta-q3-2026-earnings-fuel-premium-lounges-riyadh).\n\n### United\n\nUnited beat the estimate on GAAP profit by about $94 million and missed it on adjusted profit by about $102 million. Revenue rose 17.4% to $17.9 billion. Fuel expense rose 61.6% to $4.84 billion. Premium and loyalty revenue each grew 17%, and United expects fourth-quarter revenue to rise more than 20%.\n\n### Alaska\n\nAlaska Air Group, which includes [Hawaiian](https://www.loungefrog.com/airlines/ha), beat the estimate by $7 million on its preferred adjusted measure. On a GAAP basis it lost $147 million. Revenue rose 14% to $4.3 billion. Alaska now expects a full-year adjusted loss of $5.00 to $5.50 a share, including $1.8 billion more fuel cost than it planned. CEO Ben Minicucci said the company is \"not satisfied with this quarter's result.\"\n\n## Still to report\n\n[American](https://www.loungefrog.com/airlines/aa) is expected to post the largest loss, $225 million, when it reports on October 22 alongside Southwest. [JetBlue](https://www.loungefrog.com/airlines/b6) follows on October 27, [Frontier](https://www.loungefrog.com/airlines/f9) on October 28 and [Allegiant](https://www.loungefrog.com/airlines/g4) on November 4.\n\nFrontier is the one to watch on fuel. In July it guided to $3.70 a gallon and adjusted EPS between a 10-cent loss and a 10-cent profit. That was before prices jumped in September.\n\n## What it means for travelers\n\nThe airlines holding up best sell the most premium seats. Delta and United both grew premium and loyalty revenue by 17% to 19%. That income gives them a reason to keep investing in lounges and business class while fuel stays high.\n\nAirlines under fuel pressure tend to respond with tighter schedules, more fees and firmer fares, and the money-losing carriers have the least room to wait. Watch whether American or Southwest trims its winter schedule or slows lounge and cabin plans when they report on October 22.","textStyle":"body","layout":"text"}]}