Airbus forecasts a $420 billion aviation services market and demand for 2.44 million skilled workers

Airbus forecasts that demand for aviation services will roughly double from 2026 to more than $420 billion by 2045. Its October 14 Global Services Forecast also projects a cumulative need for more than 2.44 million additional maintenance technicians, pilots and cabin crew.

For passengers, the forecast points to what must support a larger airline network: enough trained people, spare parts, maintenance capacity and working digital systems. It is an industry outlook, rather than a new flight or a promise that a particular airline will improve its service.

The scale of the forecast

In the official release, Airbus projects a global aircraft fleet of 45,550 by 2045 and annual passenger numbers doubling to 10 billion over the same 20-year period.

The services forecast uses a compound annual growth rate of 3.8%. Its scope is aircraft-agnostic: passenger jets with more than 100 seats and freighters with a payload capability above 10 tonnes. It is not limited to Airbus aircraft.

The workforce estimate comprises 730,000 maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1.05 million cabin crew. These are cumulative needs over the forecast period, not vacancies that all exist today.

Long-range forecasts depend on assumptions about demand, fleets and economic conditions. The figures should therefore be attributed to Airbus, whose own business includes the services discussed.

Maintenance makes up most of the spending

Airbus projects off-wing maintenance at $217 billion in 2045. This includes work such as shop visits and associated parts support. A second category, maintenance operations support, is forecast at $104 billion and includes inventory provision and engineering support.

On-wing maintenance is projected at $36 billion. Taken together, those three published categories total $357 billion, showing how much of the forecast concerns keeping aircraft available and airworthy.

For a passenger, a newly delivered aircraft is only one part of the operating system. A large fleet still needs parts, scheduled checks and people qualified to perform them.

The forecast does not quantify the effect on fares or guarantee a reduction in cancellations. It describes the scale of demand for the services that airlines use to sustain operations.

Connectivity is the fastest-growing category

Airbus expects digital services and connectivity to reach $27 billion by 2045, with 5.3% annual growth. It says this market is expected to triple over the period.

That category extends beyond passenger Wi-Fi. The release also discusses predictive operations, maintenance agility and systems intended to reduce disruptions.

Recent Lounge Frog coverage shows the consumer-facing side of that investment, including Delta's Pacific Wi-Fi rollout, KLM's long-haul Starlink plans and Air France's rollout checks.

Those are separate airline announcements. Airbus's market projection does not establish their completion dates or the internet available on any individual flight.

Cabins and training are part of the picture

The forecast assigns $21 billion to modifications and upgrades, including cabin retrofits, and $17 billion to training. Airbus expects Asia to be the fastest-growing services region, while Europe and the CIS, North America and China remain the largest markets by total demand.

For examples of the passenger products behind retrofit spending, see our coverage of Air Canada's new cabins and British Airways' A380 plans.

Airport improvements are another part of a journey, covered separately in our Dulles expansion reporting and Copenhagen lounge preview.

The practical message from the forecast is that fleet growth requires much more than aircraft orders. For travelers following the industry, the next milestones to watch are staffing, maintenance capacity and completed installations alongside deliveries and new route launches.